Model MU1

Model MU1 contained clinical features of patients without symptoms

Model awaiting external validation

Model MU1 predicts the risk of asymptomatic patients to develop severe COVID-19 disease . It used clinical factors only: It has the ambition to identify the high risk patients that should follow a strict lockdown. The model contains only clinical features of patients without symptoms.

Reference: Wu G, Lambin et al. Submitted for publication

Outcome should be “Probability of severe illness in case of infection”. If the risk is high a strict preventive lockdown should be applied.

Definition of severe disease: Severe illness is defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria during hospitalization:

• respiratory distress with respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min

• pulse oximeter oxygen saturation ≤ 93% at rest

• oxygenation index (artery partial pressure of oxygen/inspired oxygen fraction) ≤ 300 mmHg

• respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation

• shock

• ICU admission due to combined organ failure

• death