Model MU1

Model awaiting external validation

Model MU1 predicts the risk of asymptomatic COVID positive patients to develop severe COVID-19 disease.

Reference: Wu G, et al

Outcome should be “Probability of severe illness in case of infection”.

It was based on age and hospital employment, and showed an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.79) on the training dataset and an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.94) on the validation dataset.

Definition of severe disease: Severe illness is defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria during hospitalization:

• respiratory distress with respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min

• pulse oximeter oxygen saturation ≤ 93% at rest

• oxygenation index (artery partial pressure of oxygen/inspired oxygen fraction) ≤ 300 mmHg

• respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation

• shock

• ICU admission due to combined organ failure

• death