Model awaiting external validation
Model MU1 predicts the risk of asymptomatic COVID positive patients to develop severe COVID-19 disease.
Outcome should be “Probability of severe illness in case of infection”.
It was based on age and hospital employment, and showed an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.79) on the training dataset and an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.94) on the validation dataset.
Definition of severe disease: Severe illness is defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria during hospitalization:
• respiratory distress with respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min
• pulse oximeter oxygen saturation ≤ 93% at rest
• oxygenation index (artery partial pressure of oxygen/inspired oxygen fraction) ≤ 300 mmHg
• respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation
• ICU admission due to combined organ failure