Model MU2

Model awaiting external validation

Model MU2 predicts the risk of symptomatic COVID positive patients to develop severe COVID-19 disease.

Included features are age, hospital employment, body temperature, and the time of onset. It yields an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.83) on the training dataset and an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.59-0.89) on the validation dataset

Reference: Wu G, et al.

Definition of severe disease: Severe illness is defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria during hospitalization:

• respiratory distress with respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min

• pulse oximeter oxygen saturation ≤ 93% at rest

• oxygenation index (artery partial pressure of oxygen/inspired oxygen fraction) ≤ 300 mmHg

• respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation

• shock

• ICU admission due to combined organ failure

• death